Muskrat Falls links
Here are links to information on the project to develop the hydropower resources of Muskrat Falls on the lower Churchill River.
» Sanction Agreement (December 17, 2012)
» Speech by Premier Kathy Dunderdale (December 17, 2012)
|Information from the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador|
» The Power is in Our Hands – Muskrat Falls, Controlling Our Future
» News release: MHI Analysis and DG3 Cost Estimates Support Development of Muskrat Falls
» Earlier information index page
» YouTube Channel for Nalcor Energy
» About Muskrat Falls
» Labrador Island-Transmission Link
» About the Strait of Belle Isle Crossing
» Muskrat Falls engineering and site preparation work
» YouTube Channel for the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador
|Federal Loan Guarantee Terms|
» Terms for the federal loan guarantee for the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project with the Government of Canada and the Governments of Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia as announced on November 30, 2012
It is essential to Canada that the Projects have national and regional significance, economic and financial merit, and significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Canada’s Guarantee of the Guaranteed Debt of each Project will significantly enhance the credit quality of the Financing of each Project. Canada hereby agrees to guarantee the Guaranteed Debt of each Project and will provide the Guarantees for the Projects as more fully described, and subject to the terms and conditions described herein. …
|Manitoba Hydro International (MHI) October 2012 report|
» MHI report: Review of the Muskrat Falls and Labrador Island HVdc Link and the Isolated Island Options (October 2012)
Recommendations: Given the analysis that MHI has conducted based on the data and reports provided by Nalcor, MHI recommends that Nalcor pursue the Interconnected Island option as the least cost alternative to meet future generation requirements to meet the expected electrical load in Newfoundland and Labrador.
|Report on Power Demand|
» New Power Generation is Required to Meet Future Electricity Demand (October 2012)
It is critical that sufficient generation supply exists to ensure that homes and residences have access to electricity for heating and other household requirements and that business and industry have the power they need to grow. Muskrat Falls will ensure that this demand is met with a clean least-cost source.
|Report on Oil Price Forecasting|
» PIRA’s Forecast Methodology and Assessment of Future Oil Price Trends (October 2012)
(excerpts) “PIRA is retained by more than 500 companies in over 60 countries. Our clientele includes all of the world’s major private integrated oil companies, nearly all of the largest state-owned national oil companies, and over 80% of both the oil producers and oil refiners in North America. Outside of the oil business, we also provide services to over 80% of the U.S. gas and electric companies and over 90% of the gas and power marketers. Our clients are not limited to the energy industry, as we provide consulting to two-thirds of the world’s top commercial banks, several proprietary traders and hedge funds, and many industrial end-users, ranging from airlines to automobile companies to chemical manufacturers. This wide-ranging, international clientele is indicative of PIRA’s global, balanced view, in which no particular constituency is catered to.”
…”Under these assumptions the Brent crude price will average approximately $100-105/Bbl (in 2011 inflation adjusted $) and WTI will average 5-10 dollars lower over the period from 2012-2025 with a modest decline from current levels expected for Brent and a modest increase for WTI as increased pipeline capacity eliminates bottlenecks and reduces the currently large WTI discount to Brent.”
|Report on Electricity Rate Forecasting|
» Electricity Rates Forecasting: Muskrat Falls will Stabilize Rates for Consumers (November 2012)
|Manitoba Hydro International (MHI) Wind Study Review|
» MHI report: Review of the Wind Study for the Isolated Island of Newfoundland (October 2012)
Investment in the Muskrat Falls Interconnected option provides a firm supply, and an opportunity to monetize the excess energy once another interconnection is made. The wind power scenarios do not provide the same value for the $11.86 or $17.43 billion costed over the study period. One must note that the wind scenarios theorized are still largely a thermal generation resource plan once the Holyrood Thermal Generating Station is replaced.
MHI finds that large-scale wind development, as a replacement for the Holyrood Thermal Generating Station, is not a least cost option and does not represent good utility practice at this time.
|Hatch Report on Wind|
» Hatch Report for Wind Integration Study – Isolated Island (August 2012)
(excerpt) A review of current and planned wind energy penetration rates worldwide found that high penetration rates came with significant operational challenges, especially in isolated systems. A penetration rate of 10% is the maximum recommended for the Island of Newfoundland system due to the uncertainty of the technical and economic impacts at the higher penetration rates which are yet to be tested under isolated system circumstances.
|Wind Integration Study|
» Wind Integration Study – Isolated Island (August 2012)
(excerpt) Based on the studies conducted, the transient stability constraint is found to be the limiting factor in determining the amount of wind penetration during the extreme light load conditions. Thus, it is recommended that no more than 225MW and 300MW of net wind generation is dispatched during the extreme light load conditions during the years 2020 and 2035, respectively.
|Ziff Energy Group Report on Natural Gas|
» Ziff Energy Group report: Natural Gas as an Island Power Generation Option (October 2012)
Ziff Energy concludes that even if Grand Banks natural gas were commercially available it would be prohibitively priced for Island power generation when compared with the proposed Muskrat Falls hydro-electric power and the current oil-fired power generation at Holyrood.
LNG supplied natural gas for power generation is not a viable alternative to the current oil-fired Holyrood generation of electricity.
|Wood Mackenzie confirm Ziff|
» Wood Mackenzie analysis of Ziff Energy Group report
|Labrador Mining and Power|
Labrador mining and power: how much and where from? (November 2012)
If these projects go ahead they will bring major economic benefits to the province, through employment and taxation revenue (both direct and indirect), as well as providing opportunities for service industries.
Estimation of future power needs for planned mining developments is challenging, particularly as many projects have not advanced to the stage where firm requests for power have been made.
Based on projects already in construction or near sanction, existing generating capacity in Labrador may be exhausted by 2015-17.
Muskrat Falls therefore will be an important source of power for mining developments post-2017, and sanctioning of the project may assist mining companies in making positive investment decisions. Availability of power will encourage investment in the province rather than in competing jurisdictions.
Muskrat Falls will both provide power for future mining developments (or export markets if mining developments are slow to proceed) as well as providing sufficient power for the Island of Newfoundland. The Isolated Island option, with refurbishment or replacement of the Holyrood Generating Station or use of natural gas, will not supply the power needed for Labrador mining developments.
In the longer term (by 2021) mining developments may absorb all residual power from the Muskrat Falls development, and further power may be needed.
|Labrador Iron Ore Mining Study|
Economic Impact Analysis of Iron Ore Mining Industry in Labrador 2011-31 (September 2012)
Investments in Scenario 3 could generate an incremental increase of approximately 358,000 person years of employment. Similarly, total Newfoundland and Labrador incomes could rise from $20 billion under the Base Case to $30.0 billion under Scenario 1, to $40 billion under Scenario 2 and $58.0 billion under Scenario 3 for an incremental increase of $38 billion over the next twenty years.
Based on the range of iron ore prices described in Table ES2, the Base Case iron ore industry in Labrador is expected to generate an estimated $9.1 +/- 1.3 billion ($0.4 +/- $0.1 billion annually average) in total taxes paid to government over the next twenty years. Operating under Scenario 1 treasury impacts could increase to $13.7 +/- $2.4 billion ($0.7 +/- $0.2 billion annual average), $24.6 +/- $5.0 billion ($1.2 +/- $0.3 billion annual average) under Scenario 2 and $25.9 +/- $5.4 billion ($1.2 +/- $0.5 billion annual average) under Scenario 3.
|Environmental Benefits of Holyrood Station Closure|
Environmental Benefits of Closing the Holyrood Thermal Generating Station (November 2012)
(excerpts) For many years, the residents of Holyrood and surrounding communities have expressed concerns and worry about the air pollution from the thermal generating plant. Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro responded by switching the plant’s fuel to a higher cost low-sulphur fuel. However, even with the change in fuel, the plant will continue to emit local air pollutants unless expensive emissions control equipment is added. This equipment, which includes scrubbers and precipitators, will cost approximately $600 to $800 million to install in addition to annual operating costs of $12 to $15 million. It is important to note that in addition to cost, emissions control equipment will help reduce sulphur dioxide emissions, but will not reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
As electricity consumption rises with an increase in the number of residential, commercial, and industrial customers, the Holyrood plant will have to be used more to ensure consumer needs are met and this means that ratepayers will be more reliant on oil and oil prices.
The Holyrood plant is 40 years old. Continued use of the facility means escalating maintenance costs, significant capital investments and upgrades, emissions-control equipment, and continued dependency on fossil fuel generation.
Retiring the Holyrood plant is the equivalent of taking 300,000 cars off the road and will help to eliminate the release of greenhouse gas and sulphur dioxide emissions. This will help to address environmental and health concerns expressed by residents of Conception Bay.
Retiring the Holyrood Thermal Generating Station will help Newfoundland and Labrador and Canada meet their respective greenhouse gas reduction targets.
With the development of Muskrat Falls, Newfoundland and Labrador will be powered by 98% clean, renewable energy.
|Gull Island Option|
Gull Island: Why not develop Gull Island first? (November 2012)
Legal Options: S92A, Good Faith and Regulatory Proceedings in Quebec (November 2012)
(excerpts) Key Factors:
|The “Wait Until 2041″ Option|
Upper Churchill: Can we wait until 2041? (November 2012)
The power contract expires in 2041, at which time the province will obtain much more control over Upper Churchill power than currently exists, and certainly benefit from the economic returns of that resource. However, Upper Churchill power is not exclusively owned by the province and Newfoundland and Labrador may consequently not have unfettered control over the resource. There will be no free power available to the province and there will be limited rights to recall power after the power contract expires.
Waiting until 2041 is not a viable alternative for several reasons. Maintaining the isolated Island system until that time, followed by the construction of a transmission link with Labrador, is more expensive than developing Muskrat Falls. There is also considerable risk and uncertainty regarding security of supply and reliability, the cost to ratepayers, and environmental compliance. Deferring the project also means deferring the province’s ability to fully capitalize on the value of its tremendous energy resources.
Clearly, the province cannot afford to take only stop-gap measures and wait until 2041 when the Power Contract expires. This date does not necessarily represent an enormous windfall of cheap or free power for the province and, in any case, the needs of customers must be met in the interim. Deferring the Muskrat Falls development represents a more costly approach to supplying power and adds a layer of cost and uncertainty as power for domestic customers will be tied to fossil fuel prices as well as the ability to extend the life of the Holyrood Generating Station to provide reliable power within potential future GHG regulatory guidelines. Waiting for available Upper Churchill power in 2041 is not a practical, economical, or sensible alternative to Muskrat Falls.
|News Releases and Speeches|
» Lower Churchill Project to Become a Reality; Province Signs Partnership Agreement with Emera Inc. for Development of Muskrat Falls (November 18, 2010)
» Premier Dunderdale’s 2011 Throne Speech response (March 21, 2011)
» Public Utilities Board to review Lower Churchill project (June 17, 2011)
» NL applauds acceptance of New Dawn agreements (July 1, 2011)
» Lower Churchill garners keen interest at conference (July 12, 2011)
» Lower Churchill loan guarantee memorandum of agreement signed (August 19, 2011)
» Visit by New England Governors focuses on Lower Churchill potential (August 22, 2011)
» Premier addresses New England-Canada Business Council on energy (November 4, 2011)
» A New Dawn for the Labrador Innu (November 18, 2011)
» Statement issued on Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project (November 28, 2011)
» MOU for Muskrat Falls business, employment benefits (November 28, 2011)
» Maritime Transmission Link registered under EPA (December 2, 2011)
» Public Utilities Board granted extension to submit report (December 14, 2011)
» Dunderdale addresses St. John’s Board of Trade (January 31, 2012)
» Speech from the Throne 2012 (March 5, 2012)
» Premier responds to Throne Speech 2012 (March 5, 2012)
» Opposition misunderstands Muskrat Falls (March 6, 2012)
» Muskrat Falls means power for Labrador industry (March 7, 2012)
» Muskrat Falls clears environmental assessment (March 15, 2012)
» Province responds to release of PUB report (April 2, 2012)
» Kennedy speaks about Muskrat Falls Project (May 3 and 15, 2012)
» Formal Agreements Signed Between Nalcor Energy and Emera Inc. for Muskrat Falls Development (July 31, 2012)
» Premier addresses St. John’s Board of Trade (October 3, 2012)
» Premier addresses Municipalities Newfoundland and Labrador (October 6, 2012)
» MHI Analysis and DG3 Cost Estimates Support Development of Muskrat Falls (October 30, 2012)
» Independent Review Shows Wind at Least $3.5B More than Muskrat Falls (October 31, 2012)
» Report Shows Grand Banks Natural Gas and LNG Not Options to Provide Power to Island (November 1, 2012)
» Reports on Labrador Mining Support Need for Power (November 1, 2012)
» Report Shows Muskrat Falls will Stabilize Electricity Rates for Consumers (November 6, 2012)
» New Power Generation is Required to Meet Future Electricity Demand (November 7, 2012)
» Developing Muskrat Falls is Best Option – Reports Released on Waiting Until 2041, Developing Gull Island First and Other Legal Options (November 9, 2012)
» Significant Environmental Benefits to be Achieved with Closing Holyrood Thermal Generating Station (November 16, 2012)
» Government Releases Independent Analysis Supporting Ziff Energy Report (November 26, 2012)
» Speeches in the House (November 28, 2012)
» Speeches in the House (November 29, 2012)
» Premier, Prime Minister Announce Agreement on Loan Guarantee (November 30, 2012)
» Speeches in the House (December 3, 2012)
» Premier addresses Canadian Club of Toronto (December 3, 2012)
» Speeches in the House (December 4, 2012)
» Technical Briefing on Federal Loan Guarantee Agreement (December 4, 2012)
» Federal Loan Guarantee Agreement Released (December 4, 2012)
» Terms of Reference Released for Independent Reports on Muskrat Falls (December 5, 2012)
» House of Assembly Passes Motion in Support of Muskrat Falls (December 5, 2012)
» New Policy Introduced to Ensure Competitive Electricity Rate for Industrial Customers in Labrador (December 11, 2012)
» Government of Newfoundland and Labrador Announces Sanction of the Muskrat Falls Development (December 17, 2012)
» New Legislation to Help Advance Muskrat Falls Hydroelectric Project (December 18, 2012)
» Proposed Amendments Support Financing of the Muskrat Falls Development (December 18, 2012)
» Project Oversight Agreement Released (December 20, 2012)
|Information from Nalcor Energy|
» Nalcor Energy website
» Muskrat Falls project
» Nalcor Energy Lower Churchill Project
» Project Benefits
» Reviews and Assessments
» Information Centre
» Formal Agreements
» Public Consultations
» Questions and Comments
|Information from Emera Inc.|
» Emera Inc. website
» Emera Newfoundland & Labrador website
|Information from the Public Utilities Board (PUB)|
» PUB report
» Provincial government responds to PUB report
» PUB website
» Complete documentation
» Webcasting of hearings, February 13-16, 2012
» Archives of hearings, February 13-16, 2012
|Earlier Manitoba Hydro International (MHI) report|
» MHI report website
» Executive summary
» Volume I
» Volume II
|Consumer Advocate report|
» Consumer Advocate final submission, March 2, 2012
» About the review
» Full report
Navigant has concluded that Nalcor’s consideration and screening of the supply options as well as the assumptions used by Nalcor regarding these options were reasonable and consistent with generally accepted utility practices. Nalcor’s process to evaluate the supply options and estimate the rate projections under the two alternatives was also found to be reasonable and consistent with generally accepted utility practices.
|Environmental Assessment Joint Review Panel report|
» Executive summary
» Full report
» Provincial website for the environmental assessment
» Federal website for the environmental assessment
» Nalcor website for the environmental assessment (generation)
» Nalcor website for the environmental assessment (transmission)
» Muskrat Falls clears environmental assessment